Wednesday was mostly meeting-free and I dedicated my time to wandering around the Las Vegas Convention Center trying to find cool things or new ideas. I kicked off the day with John Deere (NYSE: DE) discussing the latest in ag tech. I’ve been talking to John Deere for about three years, so this meeting was more about incremental updates and a chance to see a giant combine on the show floor of CES.
Getting the combine inside the convention center required them to ensure they were on the ground floor, that they were first into the center and presumably last out. It may have taken a lot of work, but the combine was a hit. There were a lot of people walking around that thing. The technology was mostly hidden by the green Deere paint job, but it’s there. The little yellow dome on the top of the combine is a GPS unit so precise that the tractor can tell where it is on the earth within one inch.
There’s also a camera on the right side of the combine that is looking at the harvested grain or soybean coming through the combine. The camera scans the crop looking for unnecessary material and then informs the combine to make adjustments based on what it sees to literally separate the wheat from the chaff. It’s computer vision driving automation inside a $500,000 machine that spends all day bumping along hot, dusty fields. I walked away thinking that John Deere’s greatest achievement might be in making technology that can handle the elements, something Apple failed to do when building its fancy butterfly keyboard.
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I also rode in a self-driving tractor. I was incredibly nervous as my friend who lives in Virginia was recently involved in a tractor-trailer accident and is currently in the midst of a challenging lawsuit. She was quite badly injured but is thankfully on the road to recovery. Nonetheless, I decided to face my fears and hop on board. Other than my excitement of being outside on a beautiful day in Vegas instead of crammed into the convention center, the ride was actually pretty dull. Deere started with automation and geolocation back in 1999 so it has had time to make its tractors pretty smooth. And unlike me in the test ride, farmers actually welcome the self-driving functionality because it frees up their brain so they can pay attention to things such as the soil condition or the progress of the machine being dragged by the tractor.
After the tractors, I spoke with Fabien Jordan, the CEO of Astrocast, a small satellite company. I’ve covered the satellite industry for years and have been skeptical of the economics of launching small sats with limited bandwidth for the IoT. Jordan says that the company has two satellites up in low-earth orbit at this time. The goal is to get 64 of them up there to handle millions of connected devices.
These satellites can handle once-a-day transmissions of about 1 kilobit. Astrocast wants to charge companies “A few dollars per year” for this connectivity. The firm was showing off two customers at CES. One is a water purifier destined for Africa. The satellite connectivity provided service in an area that cell phones don’t reliability reach and the transmissions let the operator know when it is time to change the filter. The other is an ocean-going buoy for locating fish.
To get all 64 satellites up in the air and operate them will require $50 million. Each satellite costs about half a million dollars to manufacture and launch. This is cheaper than current satellite services such as those from Irridium. Additionally, the modules required for an on the ground device to talk to the satellite are smaller and more power efficient. I do think there’s a market for this that will only grow if Astrocast can keep its costs at a few dollars per year. My concern is that after tasting what they can do with a little bit of bandwidth, companies may decide they need more. It’s not clear that Astrocast could keep up with that demand.
I am excited to see tech expand deeper into the farming world, our homes, and even space.
I am disappointed you have such good things to say about John Deere. They do probably have some nice technology.
They are strong foes in the right to repair arena. If you have a tractor out in the field, it breaks down, you must call your John Deere authorized repair center to come out an make the repairs. Many times this can be a several hour challenge, where previously the part may be available off another tractor, the farmer could weld or fix the part enough, or possibly from a used part. Not any more, the tractor repair parts are coded and must be installed by the service person, and programmed into the main computer. This costs extra for the John Deere person, as well as lost daylight productivity time.
There are farmers actively reverse engineering the John Deere firmware to make their productivity better.
https://www.wired.com/story/john-deere-farmers-right-to-repair/
http://www.aglaw.us/janzenaglaw/2017/3/29/fixing-the-right-to-repair
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/06/nebraska-farmers-right-to-repair-john-deere-apple
Need I go on?
This is actually an issue I’ve been researching in part because I think there’s merit in the need to get additional revenue from a connected product, especially if there isn’t a subscription fee. Also, as the tech gets more advanced parts that have tech affiliated with them might be lynchpins in a digital system, and an improperly done repair might break the system. We talk about this in this week’s episode with the guest from ABB in fact.
But I also understand the user perspective, especially when it changes the way repairs have operated for the last several centuries and wastes valuable time. Additionally, I don’t want digital products to become a fee grab or a way to lock users into a system forever. These are important discussions to have so we can figure out what it means to build software-define products.
I did listen to your talk with the gentleman from ABB and his discussion about servicing systems.
He talked about standards, and I agree, if there are published standards it is better for everyone. He didn’t rule out self maintenance.
John Deere has no published standards, and keep everything proprietary. They attack (DMCA section 1201) anyone who attempts to get around their secrecy.
I just changed the hubs on my truck. The hubs have the ABS sensor embedded in them. It took an hour or so to take the brake disks off, and get hub out, and put back in. At no time did it take any programming or other computer interfacing to deal with these hubs. They came out, and went back in using a plug, probably proprietary to Nissan, but still I was able to do that.
Try that with a John Deere tractor and you will have a dead tractor in your shop.
I get it for a $20-40 smart plug or camera that has a cloud interface. For a $100K tractor, nope, I bought it, I should be able to maintain it.
I get that. I’d like to talk to you more to understand the user perspective, rather than just reading legal filings etc. Can I send you an email?
I sold my last JD tractor in 2004. I am not currently a user, and I won’t buy one.
My email